The View From Above
While the US keeps everyone waiting and guessing about the next step of their military and geopolitical campaign against the “narco-terrorist” regime in Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro and his government are working hard to show preparedness, cohesion and trust in themselves. The official propaganda has gone from denying the attack on the boat in Trinidadian waters to trying to show a brave face as if welcoming the American invasion they have expected since the Chavez years.
One source perceives that the chavista coalition is divided on how to approach the threat of an American attack. Diosdado Cabello is publicly calling for an openly confrontational reaction, increasing the costs for everyone else, including Maduro, of negotiating any alternative scenario. On the other hand, Maduro and the Rodríguez siblings, while not shying away from bellicose rethoring, have made it clear that they want to reach an understanding with Trump, and have been more focused on trying to counteract Rubio’s portrayal of Venezuela as a major player in the drug trade.
In fact, while Maduro seems hesitant and Padrino looks frail, Diosdado Cabello is deploying all the features of his personal brand of relentless aggressiveness, and exploiting the communication skills he has developed in the last years. He looks as the more authentic voice in the rising chorus of patriotic harangues, perhaps the only one who the public might feel is for real when he talks about defending the Bolivarian fatherland. Whether others will follow Cabello is another issue, but either because he’s a true believer in the revolutionary cause or just a man without options, no one else appears more willing to take up arms than him, even privately among other chavista leaders.
This is consistent with Cabello’s effort to conquer more influence and extend his clout within the chavista umbrella, since the fall of Tareck El Aissami and, above all, his rise since the electoral fraud of 2024. Now, Cabello appears to have assessed that whether the US threat is real or not, under both scenarios his best play is to be the attack dog. In the first scenario, in which the US really does attack, then whether he played the appeaser or the hardliner won’t change his fate, since he knows he’s the last person the US or Machado would be willing to reach an understanding with—going into exile or hiding are his only options. One of our sources envisions Cabello turning into a warlord in a scenario where Maduro has been removed, the regime has collapsed and the current Interior Minister keeps fighting with a paramilitary force inside Venezuela. If the US is instead bluffing, then Cabello will emerge more powerful once the threat passes, and the foreign military pressure is the perfect opportunity to purge rival factions by accusing them of traitors. So Maduro not only has to deal with the challenge of keeping his ranks united while the US is pressuring to break them apart, but also the possibility of being sidelined by Cabello, who is more convincing as the leader to support in case of a Numantine resistance in the eyes of the radicals.
If the US continues to escalate—as we believe they will—, Cabello might be either the leader that seeks to rally other chavistas equally determined to put up a fight, or a dangerous obstacle for those in the chavista coalition that will want to negotiate and surrender to an invincible enemy. Given the low morale that our sources report behind the wall-to-wall propaganda, it looks like Cabello won’t have too many people to count on. In this sense, Cabello will need to increase his leverage in this fluid and uncertain context by radicalizing to the point of moving against Maria Corina Machado, as he keeps threatening, maybe to take her own hostage.
We are, of course, not the only ones to see the threat and obstacle that Cabello represents to the US and Machado’s plans, and that’s why we believe that if the US decides in favor of targeted attacks or extraction operations against chavista leaders, Cabello will be at the top of their list. Military officers accused of being involved in either drug trafficking and serious human rights abuses—or both, of which there are plenty—come after Cabello in that hypothetical list. Taking Cabello out of the equation would serve to show Maduro and others that the US is serious and the time to negotiate—truly negotiate their exit—has come, while removing the main saboteur of every negotiation process.
Machado, on her side, insists on staying in Venezuela and is working to reactivate her grassroots for the big day, which she says is coming soon. However, while we are confident the US will escalate its pressure over Maduro over the coming days and weeks, the question of “When?” remains hard to answer. According to sources, the reaction in the US—even by some Republican lawmakers—over the killing of the men allegedly carrying drugs in a small boat could have slowed down the US plans, while the assassination of Conservative activist Charlie Kirk can divert their focus temporarily. Nonetheless, sources report that the start of the high-level debate of the UN General Assembly in New York on September 23rd could mark a soft deadline on which to start making a move.
Maria Corina drafts a transition