The View From Above
The Rodriguezes are busy sending the message that their plan is to stay for good leading the new status quo in Venezuela. From afar, or from the perspective of a non-chavista citizen, it’s the same chavista government playing musical chairs once again. But in many ways this is regime change, in the sense that a new elite is taking shape, an elite that is different to those of the Chavez and Maduro years, although it may be using—por ahora—the same symbols, myths, rhetorics and domestic enemies.
Delcy continues to reengineer the chavista network to elevate those who enjoy her trust and marginalize those she distrusts. She seems to favor people with competence in their respective areas of expertise: managing the oil industry (like the new energy minister) or the repressive apparatus (like the new Defense Minister, Gustavo Gonzalez Lopez) or diplomacy (Felix Plascencia, new envoy to the US, and in practice the Foreign Minister).
While the chavista alliance is digesting change, which is not dramatic or violent enough to be perceived as a purge, civil society and opposition parties can see that the little political openness that took place after January 3rd is getting slower or even paralyzing. By reducing the speed of prison release and refusing to grant full freedom or amnesty benefit to some people like Machado advisor Perkins Rocha, the Rodriguezes convey that they still hold a certain degree of control despite the tutelage, and that that the Trump administration doesn’t have the bandwidth (or urge) to accompany a true democratic transition.
Delcy is focused on showing the world that there’s no need to have Maria Corina Machado ruling Venezuela to turn the country into a functional place that ceases to bleed migrants and is a friendly environment for significant foreign investment. Machado is working on making the case that no economic recovery will be solid unless the opposition she leads materializes the political transition. Delcy offers orders, Maria Corina promises change. While the current stability that Delcy offers seems to satisfy Trump, one of the first questions that foreign investors ask is “when will elections come?” That question comes from different angles, not just because, as Machado says, a transition to democracy is the closest guarantee they can get to a safe investment, but also because they expect that elections will be a point of contention.
The end of the 90 day period of Delcy’s caretakership will be up next Friday 3rd of April, as per the interpretation of the Constitution made by the chavista controlled Supreme Court. We expect that the caretakership will be extended by the National Assembly for 90 days more. Delcy has 3 more months of smooth sailing before they’ll have to address the election issue. If we were to try to abide by the Constitution and Venezuelan laws as closely as possible, considering the unprecedented situation we’re in, once that second 90 day period expires, Maduro’s absence would be considered permanent and elections should be called to take place within 30 days. We say that the elections will need to be addressed because at that point we’ll learn whether Delcy will try to push for an indefinite rule or will she be abiding by the Constitution and calling for a new election—the latter is highly unlikely.
Even if there was the will to hold the election according to the Constitutional timeline, the reality is that a lot has to happen before we can have a decently fair presidential election in Venezuela. The best case scenario would be to have the Delcy administration address the matter before this point, and at least set some kind of calendar, even if it’s way down the line. It is true that Marco Rubio did speak about elections in 14 months or so, but this is unlikely to be enough to reason with a population that is likely to increasingly start pushing for elections and that may be ignited by arbitrary moves by the local management. Especially if the issues that are starting to create tension in the streets are not addressed: mainly, low wages that are being swallowed by a weak monetary system that can’t reel in the Dollar.
Some issues are being addressed, we’re likely to see encouraging news regarding the electric grid soon and at some point the monetary elephant in the room will have to be addressed. On the social front we’re likely to see half-assed progress, like in the upcoming appointment of the new Prosecutor General and Ombudsman. But the quality and scope of the reform required to keep the ship sailing in calm waters surpasses the capabilities, bandwidth, and good will of Delcy & Co.
This is no sentence, it’s a warning.
The Diosdado Tour