Dear reader,
Back in November, we wrote a piece that purposely left out gray scenarios and focused only on the best outcomes fro María Corina Machado and Nicolás Maduro. We always thought that the result was probably going to land somewhere in between those. In fact, back then, the needle was closer to Maduro. One of the results of the exercise showed the sheer effort required for the US to enforce the July 28 (2024) mandate and have Edmundo González Urrutia sworn in as president. It was a black and white exercise, not meant to make a prediction. A musing, if you will.
It’s interesting that the outcome seems to have fallen dead smack in the middle. Maduro’s out and María Corina (por ahora) has been sidelined. In the end, the result was the best outcome for Trump (apparently, for now at least, and all the caveats that can be added to such a fluid situation).
But, why was it the best apparent outcome for Trump to have Machado out of the way?
First, for the scorched earth campaign required to have her stand-in (Edmundo González) rightfully reclaim the presidency. A lot has been said on that point and we’re not going to dive into it. And second, because if Machado had been “in the room where it happens” or in a key position of this strategy and the scorched earth campaign had landed her at the helm of the country with González, it’s very likely—if not absolutely certain—,that she would be pushing back harder than Delcy Rodríguez against the oversight and control that Trump is imposing over the Venezuelan oil business (and a bunch other stuff too).
Delcy’s position is that of the conquered. Of course, chavismo (or whatever you want to call it now), will try to buy time and remain in power forever, but right at this moment it’s submission. Delcy doesn’t have a constituency, she knows she’s there because she’s being allowed to remain. At least circumstantially, she was selected by an external power. Call it negative legitimacy. They don’t have to answer to the Venezuelan people—something they’ve never done anyway.
Machado and González might’ve been in a different position. Constrained and empowered by their mandate, which doesn’t mean that they could fully enforce the mandate by themselves and Venezuelan democracy would jump back in track—if the US helped and was required to keep some order it’s not crazy to think that this President (of the US) would push for loyalty and many other things in exchange—, we can at least imagine Machado being a pain in the ass for Trump in that role. And that would’ve been a good thing. You know, for Venezuelans to have an advocate in this mess. Right now, Trump can set the rules of the relationship unopposed and without a focus on what’s best for Venezuelans. That this was the only way to get rid of Maduro after everything had been tried? Perhaps, but the jury’s still out on whether it will work for everyone else.
We have an interesting week ahead for Machado, Delcy, and the Donald. It feels like a season of Game of Thrones, or any Venezuelan telenovela.
Tonite Delcy has been substituted by 🎃 himself!